Davos 2026 was full of political tensions. But those who looked beneath the surface of the diplomatic skirmishes found a much more profound shift in the data from theGlobal Risks Report 2026. This is the final blog post in our series on the World Economic Summit in Davos 2026.
While we described the end of the tool era in qualitative terms in the last article, the latest report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) now provides quantitative confirmation. The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) shows that technology is no longer just a sector, it is the dominant geopolitical battleground of the coming decade.
A look under the hood: the study design
To understand the scope of the results, it is worth taking a look at the methodology. The report is not just an opinion poll, but a double survey that contrasts the opinions of two worlds:
- The expert view (GRPS): Over 1,300 managers from science, government and civil society assessed risks according to severity and probability of occurrence.
- The Business Reality (EOS): In addition, over 11,000 business leaders in 116 economies were asked what threatens their daily operational reality.
This combination is what makes the results so explosive: they not only show abstract fears, but also concrete economic threats.
Executive Briefing: Das Davos-Mandat
Der “Agentic State” ist da. Handeln Sie jetzt, bevor die Realität Ihre Strategie überholt. Wir haben die Erkenntnisse aus Davos kondensiert: Keine Theorie, sondern ein operativer Leitfaden für C-Level & StrategInnen.
The comet rise of AI risk
The most striking anomaly in the data is the dramatic rise in AI risks.
- Short-term (2 years): “Disinformation and misinformation” still dominate here in second place – right behind geo-economic confrontation. This is the noise in the system that we are already feeling today: deepfakes in a super election year, eroding trust in news.
- Long-term (10 years): While disinformation remains a chronic systemic risk, this is where the real dynamic leap happens: the risk “Adverse outcomes of AI technologies” shoots up from 30th place (in the 2-year outlook) to 5th place in the 10-year outlook.
No other risk has seen such an increase in urgency. The experts’ message is clear: disinformation is the fire that is already burning. Autonomous AI is the accelerant that is only just flowing into the pipeline.
“We haven’t really understood the impact of autonomous AI yet, but we know that it will be fundamental.”
Politics in the “agentic state”
Why do experts suddenly see artificial intelligence as such a critical long-term risk? Because AI is beginning to penetrate the domain of “hard power”. (We mentioned this in the two previous blog posts).
The report identifies the danger that we are losing control – not in the sense of a science fiction movie, but gradually. When algorithms begin to make military decisions or autonomously control critical infrastructure, the boundaries between human responsibility and machine executive power become blurred.
The report warns of an “unintended escalation”, particularly in a military context. As AI systems reach speeds that undercut human reaction times, the classic logic of deterrence could fail. This is the geopolitical dimension of the “agentic state”: When software acts instead of just analyzing, code becomes geopolitics.
The tragedy of missed opportunities
However, it would be wrong to read the WEF report solely as a doomsday scenario. Hidden between the lines of the risks is a second, quieter message: the potential.
The experts are not only warning against “evil AI”. They warn that geopolitical isolation (“age of competition”) and fear are causing us to squander the real dividend of technology.
- AI and quantum computing could revolutionize materials science and potentially provide the key to the technological solution to climate change.
- Autonomous agents could stabilize the collapsing labour market of an ageing society – according to the motto: first stabilize, then transform.
The risk of “Adverse outcomes of AI” (5th place) therefore also means: the risk that we have the tools to save the world but are too divided to use them together.
Conclusion: Data competence is leadership competence – in both senses of the word
The data in the WEF Report 2026 is a wake-up call, but not a prophecy of doom. They show us a clear choice:
Either we allow the risks of the “agentic state” to put us on the defensive – or we develop the necessary sovereignty to leverage the enormous potential. Because the same autonomous systems that harbor geopolitical risks are also our most powerful allies against climate change, resource scarcity and demographic change.
In 2026, leadership therefore no longer means simply “managing” or fending off technology. It means setting the direction.
Those who retainsovereignty over their data and systems(Sovereign AI) not only protect themselves from risks. They also secure exclusive access to the solutions of tomorrow.
In our Executive Briefing, we show you how to strategically position your organization so that you become a player rather than a pawn.
Executive Briefing: Das Davos-Mandat
Der “Agentic State” ist da. Handeln Sie jetzt, bevor die Realität Ihre Strategie überholt. Wir haben die Erkenntnisse aus Davos kondensiert: Keine Theorie, sondern ein operativer Leitfaden für C-Level & StrategInnen.