Artificial intelligence is developing rapidly and some experts are warning that the impact on jobs and professions may come sooner than expected. Leading AI researchers now believe that full automation of human labor could occur 48 years earlier than previously thought – with “sophisticated machine intelligence” outperforming humans in every task by 2047. While this technological upheaval promises huge productivity gains, there are concerns that Germany in particular is underestimating the speed and extent of AI disruption compared to other countries. We talked about this in our last AI Compass session.
Digital professions will be the first to be replaced
In our latest AI Compass session, we had the honor of talking to Frank Tentler about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the world of work. Frank has been an expert in digitalization for over 30 years and today mainly works on AI-driven transformation processes in cities and public authorities.
According to his analyses, digital jobs and knowledge-based activities will be among the first occupations to be replaced by AI systems – with a massive impact within just 1 – 3 years. This is in line with the assessment of AI pioneer Jürgen Schmidhuber, who sees a two-stage disruption – first the automation of VDU workstations, then the takeover of physical tasks by advanced robotics. (See our last two blog posts here and here.)
And this is also confirmed by current forecasts. You can see that tasks in particular can be completed faster by AI in the foreseeable future.
New skills and job profiles are emerging
In a working world shaped by AI, completely new skills and job profiles will be required to be successful. Instead of traditional professions such as graphic designers or copywriters, the demand for employees who can effectively “communicate with AI” will increase. At the same time, many current consultant positions will be increasingly replaceable by AI assistants.
At the same time, new challenges and responsibilities are emerging, including the critical scrutiny of concepts generated by AI and the development and implementation of AI strategies. In this rapidly evolving environment, creativity and the ability to use AI tools strategically and effectively are becoming crucial skills alongside technical know-how.
Public sector recognizes opportunities and hurdles
The public sector sees AI as a promising way to counteract the impending staff shortage. Some German cities expect to lose around 30% of their employees to retirement by 2030.
The aim is to use AI to expand scarce resources and increase productivity without cutting jobs. However, the authorities still lack practical experience with “AI-first” projects and a comprehensive digital strategy.
The skilled trades and construction industry need to arm themselves
While skilled trades still have a little more time before automation takes hold, construction and trade businesses should prepare for AI-driven changes in areas such as planning, material procurement, accounting and more.
Robots for physical tasks such as road construction are still expensive, but are developing rapidly.
Enormous productivity potential – underestimated in Germany
One of the biggest drivers for the use of AI is the potential to increase productivity by 60-70%, according to studies. However, German companies expect an average productivity gain of only 30% – a sign that the disruptive effects of generative AI are still greatly underestimated in this country.
The challenges of introducing AI systems include poor data quality, outdated IT infrastructure and problems with system integration. Ethical questions about bias, transparency and accountability also need to be addressed as AI makes more decisions.
Building trust is also crucial for the acceptance of AI. Transparency, familiarity with the technology and clear guidelines are important here. A lack of trust, both in the quality of AI results and in the impact on jobs, is a major obstacle to the introduction of AI. Companies are therefore increasingly investing in measures to build trust, such as transparency and explainability of AI models.
Experiment now and gain experience
It is high time to experiment with AI tools and assistants before Germany falls further behind. Companies, government agencies and educational institutions need to adapt quickly and update curricula and training to build the necessary AI skills for the workforce of the future.
Even if no one can predict exactly how quickly AI will take over certain tasks, an open attitude towards technology and a willingness to keep learning will be crucial to staying one step ahead of disruption. With the right preparation, Germany can reap the productivity benefits of AI while cushioning job losses through further training and new opportunities in an AI-based economy.
According to a recent study by Deloitte, the majority of companies expect generative AI to impact their talent strategies within two years. The focus here is on adapting work processes and retraining employees. Generative AI will increase the value of certain technical and interpersonal skills, while other skills will become less important. In the short term, the number of employees is expected to increase rather than decrease due to the use of AI.
Summary
The influence of AI on the world of work is currently still greatly underestimated. In order to successfully shape the change, we need to rethink now and start with concrete “AI-first” projects. At the moment, this is not about cutting jobs, but about expanding human capabilities. With an open mindset, we can take advantage of the opportunities offered by AI – for better services, more creative tasks and more freedom at work.
Qualifications are crucial in order to survive in the changing world of work. Companies need to inspire their employees and give them the opportunity to continuously develop their skills in order to keep pace with technological developments. At the same time, professionals should take the initiative to prepare themselves for new challenges and expand their skills. Only by continuously adapting and learning new skills can the workforce successfully master the challenges of the AI era.
A first step: the AI compass
The AI Compass provides a platform for navigating the challenges and opportunities that artificial intelligence brings. This project, supported by the European Union, enables learning professionals and adult educators from all EU countries to keep their finger on the technological pulse and discuss the impact on the labor and continuing education market. It also supports people in AI “endangered” professions by highlighting opportunities for increasing efficiency and personal development.
SMEs can recognize which developments are on the horizon in the short and medium term and how they can prepare their workforce through targeted FITskilling. Education policy-makers gain access to information about new approaches to continuing education and the measures being discussed and implemented in other EU countries or by the EU Commission. We invite all interested parties to join us to actively participate in our free online sessions and workshops and to learn more.
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Further links
- Frank Tentler’s public AllAI Facebook group
- An example of Frank’s self-built AI assistant for the commute planner