Labor market 2035
The end of the knowledge society?
The development of artificial intelligence will fundamentally transform the labor market. For the first time, cognitive and creative activities that were previously considered impossible to automate are also coming under pressure. Together with demographic change and the demands of climate change, this is changing the importance that knowledge work will have in the future. But what takes its place?
Article by Lothar Abicht from managerSeminare 305, August 2023
Author Lothar Abicht looks at the future development of the labor market up to the year 2035. He assumes that two factors will fundamentally change the world of work:
1. demographic change
- In the next few years, the mismatch between the baby boomers leaving the labor market and the upcoming smaller cohorts of Generation Z will lead to a shortage of skilled workers.
- In the medium term, however, this will level out again as a result of demographic change and falling birth rates.
- Immigration can temporarily alleviate the shortage of skilled workers, but it is not a long-term solution.
2. digital transformation through AI
- So far, digitization has not led to the hoped-for increase in productivity.
Labour productivity development in Germany & Europe
- Labor productivity measures economic output per hour worked and determines the material prosperity of an economy.
- In Germany and other developed economies, labor productivity growth has been declining for some time.
- Particularly affected are industry, trade, and information and communications service providers.
- The reasons given are:
- The structural shift toward less productive services.
- The decoupling of economic growth and employment, primarily due to demographic change.
- Possible statistical measurement problems in recording labor productivity.
- Despite digitization, no productivity boost is discernible. The potentials do not seem to be exhausted yet.
- Conclusion: The development of labor productivity remains an important challenge for business and politics.
- With new technologies like generative AI, that could now change.
- As a result, knowledge work is also coming under pressure for the first time, as many activities can be automated.
- There will be no disappearance of entire occupational groups, but there will be a reduction in the number of employees required.
Epoch break as a result
The “knowledge society” is transforming into a “care&climate society”. There will then be less need for highly productive knowledge workers, but more employees in care occupations and occupations for climate-neutral restructuring (Climate).
For knowledge workers, this means that they should realistically assess their future opportunities and, if necessary, obtain further qualifications. Acquiring initial AI experience will soon become indispensable, especially for knowledge workers.
To this end, we have published our requirements catalog for building digital competence in society as a whole (not translated into English yet).